Known as the Sacagawea of fantasy primers, the Weekly Rundown guides
head-to-head owners through a forest of obscure stats and exploitable
matchups in an attempt to help solve lineup conundrums. While reading,
keep in mind matchups are subject to change due to managerial moves,
unforeseen injuries and Mother Nature's influence.
In Fantasyland it 'tis the trading season. We're all
intrigued for various reasons.
Good little baseball girls and boys lay asnooze in their
beds with thoughts of category difference makers dancing in their heads. Only
leaguers who've hoarded FAAB cash are in a prime position to make a mad Berkman,
Cantu or Scotty Pods dash. Shallow managers who relish a mix, may even pick-up
good ole' Jayson Nix(notes). So come, reveal your wishes on Santana Claus' lap. And
don't forget to weigh the pluses and minuses of J.A. Happ(notes).
Here's a buyer's guide from a very busy deadline week to help
you prepare for a championship streak:
Drew Storen(notes), Was, RP,
26-percent owned
Bust a move in … 10-team mixers via waivers/trade
Matt Capps'(notes) dismissal to Minnesota throws open the door of
opportunity for the highly skilled rookie. Though initially he'll be involved
in a rotation with Tyler Clippard(notes) and Sean Burnett(notes), Storen is clearly the
'Nats' closer of the present and future. His mid-90s fastball, hard-breaking
slider and change are all plus pitches. Working exclusively as a setup man,
he's posted a 2.64 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 7.63 K/9 over 30.2 innings. His 4.11 BB/9
is slightly worrisome, but he has the makeup to be a dominating closer. It's
inevitable he will separate from the pack.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 23.1 IP, 2.77 ERA, 1.24 ERA, 19 K, 2 W, 12 S
Lance Berkman(notes), NYY,
1B/DH, 74-percent owned (Full breakdown here)
Bust a move in … AL-only
formats (Empty FAAB bank), mixers via trade
Sewer rats are shivering in their disease-infested fur, the
Big Puma is about to invade the Bronx. The
multi-time All-Star has lost some punch, but his still lethal wallop
from the left side should thrive in the jet stream aided confines of Yankees Stadium. The vet's
19:2 K:BB split in July and overall GB/FB rise (1.32) are concerns, but he's
shown signs of regaining his fearsome form. Since Independence Day he's
launched six homers with 14 RBIs. In a ridiculously rich lineup, he should
easily be a top-10 first baseman moving forward.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 216 at-bats, .278 BA, 10 HR, 43 RBI, 40 R, 1 SB
Jorge Cantu(notes), Tex,
1B/3B, 75-percent owned (Full breakdown here)
Bust a move in …
AL-only formats ($40-$45 bid), mixers via trade
The Can-Do man's shift from the cavernous specs of Land Shark
Stadium to Rangers Ballpark should do wonders. Expected to be the everyday
first baseman with Hurricane Chris Davis(notes) once again displacing Mini Coopers in Oklahoma City, the RBI
machine will be a very useful corner infield from this point forward. Cantu's
expanded strikeout-to-walk disparity is unattractive (0.30 BB/K), but his .299
BA with runners in scoring position speaks volumes about his runs-driving
potential. An additional 40-45 RBIs is certainly attainable in Texas' loaded
lineup.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 222 at-bats, .274 BA, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 33 R, 0 SB
Matt Capps, Min, RP,
86-percent owned (Full breakdown here)
Bust a move in …
AL-only formats ($35-$40 bid), mixers via trade
Most analysts, including yours truly, believe sacrificing
top catching prospect Wilson Ramos(notes) for a middle-of-the-road closer was a questionable
move, especially given Jon Rauch's(notes) end game effectiveness (21-for-25 in save
chances). But despite a few potholes in the road, the All-Star has been
fabulous this season. His ability to place pitches accurately (1.72 BB/9) has
garnered a career best 1.43 GB/FB. Adventurous outings will occasionally occur,
but on a team in the thick of a division race, he should be equal in value to
Jose Valverde(notes), Joakim Soria(notes) and Brian Fuentes(notes) over the final two months.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 31.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 22 K, 2 W, 13 S
Ted Lilly(notes), LAD, SP, 49-percent
owned (Full breakdown here)
Bust a move in … 10-team
and deeper mixers via pick-up/trade
No starter benefited most from a uniform change than Lilly.
The homer vulnerable pitcher's change of address from Wrigley to Dodgers
Stadium greatly improves his fantasy standing. LA's significantly better
offense also provides the support the southpaw rarely received on the North
Side. His excellent command (3.07 K/BB, 1.14 WHIP) and innings eating demeanor
will yield delicious fruits for owners desiring a champagne shower. Expect him
to be a top-flight No. 3 over the remainder of the season.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 79.0 IP, 5 W, 3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 58 K
Jon Jay(notes), StL, OF,
seven-percent owned
Bust a move in …
12-team plus mixers, watch in shallower formats
First advertised by the Noise two weeks ago, the Cardinals'
Chief Justice received an enormous boost of confidence when Ryan Ludwick(notes) was
shipped to San Diego.
Absolutely raking as an everyday player, he's accumulated a .429 BA since the
break, totaling six multi-hit performances. His smooth through-the-zone stroke
(1.29 GB/FB), favorable minor league track-record and entrenched spot in the
two-hole should net plenty of BA/runs value. Employ Jay and he'll make the
opposition pay.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 228 at-bats, .319 BA, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 37 R, 2 SB
Joel Hanrahan(notes), Pit, RP, eight-percent owned (Full breakdown here)
Bust a move in … 12-team and deeper mixers via pick-up/trade
Octavio Dotel's(notes) dishing to the Dodgers likely elevates Joel Hanrahan from setup man to stopper. For owners unappreciative of quality middle relievers, the righty has been, along with the Cubs' Sean Marshall(notes), incredibly useful. In 45.2 innings, the fastball/slider reliever has posted an outstanding 12.72 K/9. His 2.76 BB/9 isn't too shabby either. The young Bucs have shown some offensive improvement in recent weeks which bodes well for Hanrahan's door-slamming opportunities. Based on his sky-high K/9, he could be a John Axford(notes)-type the rest of the way.
Fearless Forecast (rest of season): 29.1 IP, 1 W, 3.46 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 36 K, 10 S
Miguel Tejada(notes), SD,
3B/SS, 60-percent owned (Full breakdown here)
Bust a move in …
NL-only formats ($35-$40) watch in shallower formats
Age may only be a number but to Tejada it's a nemesis. At
36, the shortstop is still an excellent contact hitter, as his 90.3
CT percentage indicates. However, in terms of power, he's wielding a hollow
bat. His current 5.9 HR/FB rate is the lowest of his illustrious career. Moving
to the heavy air of Petco definitely won't help the vet rediscover his
missing muscle. But improvement in runs, RBI and BA are a strong possibility
batting cleanup. Currently the 23rd-most valuable shortstop in the Y! game,
look for him to puncture the position's top 20 by season's end.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 232 at-bats, .275 BA, 4 HR, 34 RBI, 29 R, 0 SB
Jhonny Peralta(notes), Det,
3B/SS, 27-percent owned
Bust a move in …
12-team plus mixers, watch in shallower formats
Similar to Tejada, Peralta was a downward trending bat
trapped in baseball purgatory. Now in a more nourishing environment, the
multi-positional infielder could regain his mojo in Motown. Paying instant
dividends in his Tigers debut, he went 3-for-4 with two homers and three RBIs
against the Red Sox. The 28-year-old has been more pull conscious this season,
indicative in his radical increase in fly-ball percentage ('09: 30.6, '10:
46.0). Unless his approach reverses, his BA will continue to suffer. But
batting just behind Miguel Cabrera(notes) could lead to generous results in HR/RBI.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 212 at-bats, .267 BA, 6 HR, 30 RBI, 26 R, 1 SB
Jake Westbrook(notes), StL,
SP, three-percent owned (Full breakdown here)
Bust a move in …
12-team plus mixers, watch in shallower formats
Rags to riches could be Westbrook's second half story. Any
pitcher, no matter how painfully mediocre, that receives the tutelage of pitching wizard Dave
Duncan deserves a roster spot. Todd Wellemeyer(notes), Joel Pineiro(notes) and Jaime Garcia(notes)
are just a few reasons why even shallow leaguers should get excited about the
righty. The former Indian isn't a strikeout machine, but his ability to coax
ample weak contact (53.3 GB%) is a major plus. A shift from the pitcher
friendly NL certainly doesn't hurt. Even in 12-team mixers, Westbrook will pay
lucrative dividends across three categories.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 81.2 IP, 7 W, 3.86 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 44 K
Alex Gordon(notes), KC,
3B/OF, 15-percent owned
Bust a move in …
14-team plus mixers, watch in shallower formats
Presumably the twin brother of Texas' Davis, the former No. 2
overall pick has traveled down a wayward developmental path. Beset by various
injuries and ineptitude, Gordon has been one of fantasy's greatest wiener
teases. But in what could be his last chance to impress, the former elite
prospect's potential may finally be realized. Now the everyday leftfielder for
the Royals, the 26-year-old is hoping to tap into his 20-20 talent reservoir.
Currently riding a five-game hit-streak, including a walk-off three-run bomb
against the O's on Friday, he could be a top 20 third-basemen over the
remainder of the season. Fantasy Biggies, give him one more chance.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 209 at-bats, .266 BA, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 26 R, 4 SB
Scott Podsednik(notes), LAD,
OF, 69-percent owned (Full breakdown here)
Bust a move in …
NL-only formats ($20-$25 bid), 14-team plus mixers, watch in shallower formats
Roaming the outfield once again on the senior circuit at Xavier Pau's expense, the
former Brewer is a shot in the arm for deep leaguers desperate for steals and
runs. Pods' terrific batted ball and contact profiles
also suggest he will be a valuable BA source. Once Manny Ramirez(notes) is activated,
he will slide back into a utility role. But with roughly 3-4 starts per week he
should generate appreciable numbers in small doses, especially if Joe Torre's
"test run" inserting the outfielder into the leadoff spot becomes
more permanent.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 177 at-bats, .298 BA, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 28 R, 13 SB
Aaron Heilman(notes), Ari,
RP, seven-percent owned
Bust a move in …
14-team plus mixers, watch in shallower formats
ERA punching bag Chad Qualls'(notes) departure to Tampa instantly thrusts Heilman into save
opportunities. Arguably the steadiest performer in the leagues worst bullpen,
the journeyman reliever has scattered just six hits (one earned run) in eight
appearances since July 9. A free agent this upcoming winter, the righty will be
motivated to finish strong. Though end-game chances may be few and far between,
especially if he splits duties with Juan Gutierrez(notes), he is still worthy of a
roster spot on teams strapped for saves. But keep in mind his uncomfortable
mixture of walks (3.94 BB/9) and fly-balls (0.66 GB/FB) could lead to a
disastrous outing or three.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 28.1 IP, 1 W, 3.55 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 20 K, 5 S
J.A. Happ, Hou, SP,
36-percent owned
Bust a move in …
14-team plus mixers, watch in shallower formats
Glancing over his peripheral profile from a season ago, Happ
undoubtedly had a torrid affair with Lady Luck. His -1.40 FIP-ERA differential
and .270 BABIP support the claim. However, the still developing former top
prospect, who is now back at full strength after missing most of the season
from a forearm injury, has the potential to excel in a pressure-less
environment. In his 'Stros debut against Milwaukee
he tossed six scoreless (2 HA, 6 K, 4 BB) earning his first win of the season.
He won't light the world on fire, but quality back-of-the-rotation numbers in
deeper mixers are certainly achievable over the final two months if his control is
harnessed.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 77.1 IP, 4 W, 3.93 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 59 K
Brett Wallace(notes), Hou,
3B, two-percent owned (Full breakdown here)
Bust a move in …
all keepers, 14-team plus mixers, watch in shallower formats
In his short professional career, Wallace has been passed
around more than sun tan lotion on the set of "Jersey Shore."
But with Lance Berkman in pinstripes, the Walrus may finally break out of the
minor league zoo. Considered the best natural hitter in the '08 draft by
Baseball America, the corner
infielder has performed admirably at Triple-A this season tallying a .301-18-61
line with Las Vegas.
His above average hitting tools should translate well to the big league level
once promoted. Grab him in deep leagues.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 167 at-bats, .284 BA, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 21 R, 0 SB
Jayson Nix, Cle,
2B/3B/SS, three-percent owned
Bust a move in …
14-team plus mixers, watch in shallower formats
Since his first big league promotion in 2008, Nix has racked
up the frequent flyer miles. Playing for his third team in as many seasons,
he's finally been gifted an everyday opportunity. Filling the void vacated by
Peralta, he could notch surprising power totals the rest of the way. Remember
the monster tear he went on before the break (10-for-33, six homers, eight RBIs
July 2-9)? Given his versatility and power upside, deep-thinking owners sound
in BA with a gaping hole at MI should consider the well-traveled infielder.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 208 at-bats, .248 BA, 7 HR, 24 RBI, 16 R, 3 SB
Daniel Hudson(notes), Ari,
SP, three-percent owned (Full breakdown here)
Bust a move in …
14-team plus mixers, watch in shallower formats
Fleeced from Chicago
for Edwin Jackson(notes), the prized prospect is a deceptive thrower with Jered
Weaver(notes)-like upside. His aggressive approach and plus four-pitch arsenal - 91-93
mph fastball, slider, change and curve - should eventually propel him into
fantasy starting rotations in the near future. However, despite his eye-popping
numbers at Triple-A (93.1 IP, 3.47 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, 103 K), he has shown little
polish at the big league level, which, when accompanied with his skyward
profile (0.55 GB/FB), is troubling. At best, investors will net a Clayton
Richard(notes) post-trade '09 return. Still, his punchout potential is very appealing.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 72.1 IP, 3 W, 4.38 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 67 K
Josh Bell(notes), Bal, 3B,
one-percent owned
Bust a move in …
all keepers, 14-team plus mixers, watch in shallower formats
With the Orioles in their annual rebuilding mod, Bell
should see regular at-bats with Tejada in San
Diego. Rated the No. 2 prospect in the O's
organization by Baseball America,
the free-swinging hot corner (24.7 K% at Triple-A this year) possesses the pop
to eventually develop into a perennial 25-30 homer masher. However, until he exhibits
more patience, inconsistency will be the norm. But his keeper upside is rather
formidable. Watch him closely.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 159 at-bats, .258 BA, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 13 R, 1 SB
Other
players dished at the deadline who also received a value boost: Chris Perez(notes), Cle, RP (thanks to Kerry Wood(notes) to NYY deal); Chris Snyder(notes), Pit; Edwin Jackson, ChW, SP; Rick Ankiel(notes), Atl, OF; Cristian Guzman(notes), Tex, 2B/SS; Ryan
Theriot(notes), LAD, 2B/SS
DOUBLE DIPPERS
For stream conscious owners
who want to push the innings-pitched envelope this is the list for you.
Run support, ballpark factors, historical and recent trends, opposing
offenses, opposing SPs, managerial tendencies and meteorological
influences are painstakingly taken into account to give you the top
double dippers of each week.

Other AL Double Dippers: Jeremy Guthrie(notes), Bal (LAA, ChW), Mitch Talbot(notes), Cle (at Bos, Min), Brian Bannister(notes), KC (at Oak, at Sea)

Other NL Double Dippers: Joe Saunders(notes), Ari (Was, SD), Aaron Cook(notes), Col (SF, at Pit), Paul Maholm(notes), Pit (Cin, Col), Ross Ohlendorf(notes), Pit (Cin, Col), Scott Olsen(notes), Was (at Ari, at LAD), Sean West(notes), Fla (Phi, StL)
FEAST OR FAMINE?
Torn between two
stat-similar infielders this week? Use the pitching and hitting staff
sorters below to help you decide whether or not Adam
LaRoche(notes)
or Carl
Pavano(notes)
is fantasy feast or famine. Stats are for games played through July 29:

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Images courtesy of AP/MLB.com/Minorleaguebaseball.com